Economic & event calendar Asia Monday, Jan 19, 2026, China Q4 GDP & Dec eco activity data

China's economic data is under scrutiny. The Q4 GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 4.5%, marking the slowest pace in three years. While the full-year growth is expected to meet the government's target of about 5%, nominal growth may fall short. Concerns are particularly focused on the sluggish retail sales and investment which are weighing heavily on economic activity. Retail sales growth for December is forecasted to hit a three-year low due to stagnant income growth and challenging labor conditions. Fixed asset investment is expected to record its first annual contraction since records began, highlighting the saturation of infrastructure spending and the downturn in the housing market. Conversely, December's industrial production is likely to accelerate, supported by resilient external demand, suggesting a divergence in growth dynamics going into 2026. Policymakers show reluctance toward large-scale stimulus, signifying greater tolerance for slower growth amid rising concerns related to local government debt and the diminishing effectiveness of monetary easing measures in a weak demand environment.