China official December 2025 PMIs: Manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.2) Non-manu 50.2 (exp 49.8)

China's official December PMI data shows manufacturing at 50.1 and non-manufacturing at 50.2, both above expectations, indicating a potential stabilization in the manufacturing sector. Provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI reflects conditions in larger, state-owned enterprises, which tend to access credit and policy support more easily. In contrast, the S&P Global PMI targets smaller enterprises and is more responsive to shifts in demand and employment conditions. These readings may enhance expectations for further policy support in 2026 as authorities aim to stabilize growth and boost confidence. The optimistic PMI data, however, does not eliminate concerns about the persistent slack in China's industrial cycle. As a result, risk assets may struggle to gain traction. Asian equities might face challenges, and base metals could see limited upside due to weak demand. In FX markets, softer PMIs could further pressure the yuan, especially if the private-sector PMI reflects ongoing issues among smaller firms. From a policy standpoint, such data could strengthen expectations for targeted stimulus measures in early 2026, including fiscal support and incremental monetary easing.