China S&P Global/Rating Dog December 2025 Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expect 49.8, prior 49.9)

In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 50.1, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion in the manufacturing sector. This improvement is primarily driven by stronger domestic demand rather than a recovery in exports. It marks a notable shift after a prolonged period of weakness. Manufacturing output returned to growth, but the recovery is uneven, with new export orders remaining weak due to subdued external demand. Employment continues to contract, and firms are cautious in their purchasing activities. Cost pressures have intensified due to rising raw material prices, leading manufacturers to cut selling prices to support sales, which impacts profit margins. However, optimism remains about gradual recovery in 2026, driven by new products and expected policy support. Overall, the signs of recovery in China's manufacturing sector warrant close monitoring of future trends.