Guggenheim warns US asset returns to soften in 2026: US bonds, equities face lower returns

Guggenheim has projected that returns across major U.S. asset classes will soften in 2026, primarily due to increased supply and weaker foreign inflows. The firm expects modest upward pressure on bond spreads driven by rising credit issuance, as companies take advantage of favorable market conditions for opportunistic borrowing. Despite stable interest rates, they remain higher than levels seen over the past decade, contributing to higher supply overall. Guggenheim also notes significant challenges for U.S. equities and the dollar, as foreign investors shift allocations away from U.S. assets toward alternatives like gold and silver. The cautious outlook follows a strong year in 2025, but the firm cautions that continued supply-demand imbalances and reduced foreign inflows will likely limit upside potential moving forward.