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Economic and event calendar in Asia Wednesday, December 31, 2025 - China PMIs for December
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways (30s Read)
China's PMI data release could impact market outlook significantly.
Economic Trends and PMI Background
China is set to release its latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data on December 31, 2025, crucial for assessing the economic momentum of the world's second-largest economy. The PMI consists of two main surveys: the official PMI compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics, which focuses on large state-owned enterprises, and the private-sector PMI from S&P Global/RatingDog, which emphasizes small and medium-sized enterprises. Both provide complementary signals on the health of China's manufacturing sector.Expected Release and Market Impact
The official manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.2, indicating a ninth consecutive month of contraction. Weak domestic demand, falling industrial profits, and high U.S. tariffs are contributing factors. The private-sector PMI is also predicted to dip slightly to 49.8. Another sub-50 PMI print supports the narrative of persistent slack in China's industrial cycle, thus limiting immediate upside for risk assets and putting downward pressure on the yuan. Overall, the release may bolster expectations for further policy support in 2026, such as fiscal measures and monetary easing, increasing the possibility of downside risks in the market.AI Analyst
AI Opinion
"The release of China's PMI data is pivotal as it could have significant effects on market sentiment. A PMI reading below 50 signals economic contraction, potentially undermining investor confidence. With Chinese manufacturing under pressure, a further decline in the yuan seems likely. While additional policy stimulus may be implemented, immediate effects may be limited. Furthermore, global markets could feel the impact, raising concerns about reduced revenues for Japanese and other Asia-Pacific firms."
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