China Two Sessions 2026: growth target, fiscal stance and 15th plan signals in focus

China's upcoming Two Sessions in March 2026 will focus on growth targets and overall policy direction as it serves as a precursor to the 15th Five-Year Plan. The conference will commence on March 4 with the CPPCC, followed by the NPC on March 5, where Premier Li Qiang will deliver the Government Work Report. A pivotal point of discussion involves whether Beijing will lower the GDP growth target from 'around 5%' to approximately 4.5%-5%. Such a move would signify a transition towards a focus on 'high-quality growth' and reduce the expectations for a large-scale stimulus. Analysts expect a headline fiscal deficit around 4% of GDP, with support likely to come through targeted fiscal programs rather than broad deficits. Markets will be keen to observe how policy messaging addresses domestic demand and the economic environment amidst ongoing US-China tensions.