Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper forecast as tariff odds ease

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 copper price forecast due to a reduced likelihood of U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports. The new forecast sets the average price at $11,400 per metric ton, indicating a shift as inflation concerns become more pressing. Although refined copper was excluded from recent import tariffs, there is still a significant policy risk, with Goldman estimating a 55% chance of a 15% tariff announcement in early 2026. This, paired with expected future tariffs, is likely to cause U.S. copper prices to trade at a premium, impacting supply dynamics and stockpiling behavior dramatically. While the near-term outlook remains positive due to tight supply, the unchanged forecast for 2027 suggests potential downside for prices.