GBPUSDが2025年の高値近くで推移中

GBPUSD Technical Update

GBPUSD is currently trading near its recent highs, touching above the cycle high at around 1.3790 before retracting below that level. This price action suggests that sellers are actively targeting the major trendline support at approximately 1.3500, following a false breakout. This pattern indicates that if the price approaches the trendline, we could see buyers positioning themselves in anticipation of a rally back to new cycle highs. Additionally, today's data releases, including the US ADP and ISM Services PMI, will play a critical role in shaping market sentiment towards the greenback as traders gauge the potential for a hawkish shift in interest rate expectations.

Bank of England’s Impact

The upcoming Bank of England (BoE) rate decision is another significant factor for GBPUSD traders. It's widely anticipated that the BoE will opt to keep the Bank Rate steady, as evidenced by a recent split vote (6-3) in favor of no change. However, any updates in the monetary policy report, particularly regarding inflation revisions or guidance changes, could signal a dovish shift. A dovish outlook has the potential to undermine the recent gains seen in the GBP.

Market Participants' Outlook

In light of the current technical landscape, traders are advised to closely monitor any price reactions around the key support level at 1.3500. A bounce from this level could present a buying opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a potential rally into new highs. Conversely, if price breaches this support, it may warrant a shift in bearish sentiment among market participants, especially if paired with adverse data from the US. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains caught between robust US data expectations and the cautious stance of the BoE. With significant economic releases on the horizon, volatility may increase, offering traders potential opportunities.