How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?

Changes in Interest Rate Expectations

Recent economic data shows adjustments in interest rate expectations from several central banks. A weaker-than-expected US core inflation report led to a reduction in the year-end rate cut forecast to 48bps from 54bps. Moreover, strong jobless claims data further suppressed the likelihood of significant easing.

Bank of Japan Outlook

Conversely, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is demonstrating a somewhat hawkish stance given concerns regarding the weakening yen's impact on inflation. Reports indicate that BoJ is becoming increasingly cautious about the yen's decline, suggesting possible implications for future rate hikes despite expectations of maintaining steady rates temporarily.

Central Bank Projections

- Federal Reserve (Fed): 48bps cut by year-end. - Bank of England (BoE): 43bps cut by year-end. - European Central Bank (ECB): 1bps cut by year-end. - Bank of Canada (BoC): 10bps hike by year-end. - Bank of Japan (BoJ): 44bps hike by year-end. - Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 39bps hike by year-end. - Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 35bps hike by year-end. - Swiss National Bank (SNB): 4bps cut by year-end.