Fedspeak recap: Odds of a January or March rate cut dwindle

Today’s Fedspeak offered little clarity on the Federal Reserve's direction, with market expectations for a rate cut falling significantly. Currently, there’s just a 9% chance of a cut at the January 28 meeting, 26% for March, and 60% for April. Neel Kashkari emphasizes that it is 'way too soon' to cut rates, pointing to a confusing yet resilient economy. He warns against early cuts despite decreasing inflation. Raphael Bostic echoes this sentiment, highlighting that the inflation challenge remains. Conversely, Paulson and Miran present a softer outlook, with Paulson suggesting further cuts later this year if forecasts are met. Miran argues that deregulation could reduce prices, justifying potential cuts. Overall, the central bank appears divided on its monetary policy stance, complicating predictions for future rate adjustments.