Crude oil extends gains as the risk of US strikes on Iran raises the geopolitical premium

Fundamental Overview

After an initial dip following the capture of Venezuela's President Maduro, crude oil prices rose significantly as focus shifted to Iran. The unrest in Iran poses a major challenge to the government's authority, exacerbated by a currency collapse and rising fuel prices. President Trump's support for protesters and potential military intervention adds to geopolitical risks, significantly affecting crude oil price movements.

Technical Analysis - Daily Chart

On the daily chart, crude oil has broken through the upper bounds of a falling channel, indicating strong buying interest. A clear risk is defined below the trendline. A break above the swing level of 60.52 could lead to a rally towards 66.00, while sellers are poised around this level for a potential fall back to 55.00.

Technical Analysis - 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a strong support zone around the 58.70 level. A pullback to this support could invite buyers, maintaining a defined risk below this level.

Market Context

While demand remains weak amid economic inflation and OPEC+ output decisions, a stretched bearish positioning may offer recovery opportunities if economic activity picks up.

Upcoming Catalysts

Traders will be eyeing upcoming US CPI reports today, and retail sales and PPI tomorrow, which could affect market directions significantly.