Prediction markets downplay Powell exit risk despite DOJ probe: Asia Morning Briefing

Recent reports indicate that traders are downplaying the risk of an early exit for Fed Chair Powell amidst a criminal investigation. Indicators from prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi suggest that the likelihood of him resigning earlier than expected is low. Traditionally, shifts in US monetary policy have significant impacts on the stock and Forex markets, especially related to interest rate forecasts. However, traders seem to maintain a belief in Powell's capacity to fulfill his duties, with market stability supported by flexible policy implementation and the predictability of interest rate adjustments. In this context, investors should remain alert, as developments involving Powell will be critical.