How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls report

Trump's Leak of the Payrolls Report

Late yesterday, Trump posted on Truth Social, causing a stir by presenting numbers that didn't align with the non-farm payrolls data already released. This comes after the Council of Economic Advisors received a briefing the evening before the release, raising suspicions of data leaks. Today's data release aligned with Trump's claims, but trading on this information required complex modeling due to the revisions in October and November's data. Thus, knowing these numbers has mitigated risks around unexpected data points. The market's reaction has been volatile since the release; the US dollar initially surged on falling unemployment, only to reverse due to major downward revisions in jobs numbers, but is now broadly stronger again. Additionally, the Supreme Court's delay on tariff decisions and a Japanese report suggesting a February election have added to market dynamics. Flows around the start of the new year and rising US stock markets could also be influencing these movements. Conversely, gold has broken $4500, reflecting turmoil in international relations and a decline in confidence due to such leaks, reminiscent of the gold rally initiated when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in late August.