US oil majors seek guarantees before investing in Venezuela as Trump pushes output revival

Pressure from Trump Administration on Venezuelan Investment
The Trump administration is pressing major U.S. oil companies to support the revival of Venezuela's oil industry. However, executives from these firms warn of the need for strong legal and financial guarantees from Washington before committing substantial capital, citing historical risks of expropriation and policy instability as significant hurdles.

## Investment Risks and Required Guarantees
The U.S. aims to assert control over Venezuelan oil revenues, which prompts companies to seek protections against contract instability and legal challenges. Analysts indicate that any significant supply recovery will require substantial capital and could take years. Companies are wary of becoming entangled in politically motivated arrangements, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding the longevity of U.S. policy.

## Strategic Importance and Future Outlook
For the U.S., securing Venezuelan oil supply holds strategic importance for reshaping heavy crude supply and supporting refining needs. However, as long as companies require specific guarantees, an immediate surge in Venezuelan supply seems unlikely. In the near term, this situation may introduce volatility in oil-linked risk assets, yet substantial production increases will likely take time.