Gold Technical Analysis: Midterm outlook remains bullish, US data to decide the short-term

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold is currently trapped in a range between the 4250 resistance and the 4150 support, with traders waiting for a breakout. The recent Federal Reserve announcement of a 25 basis point cut was largely expected, and Chair Powell appeared somewhat dovish, downplaying inflation risks while focusing on the labor market. Upcoming US NFP and CPI reports will significantly influence short-term gold dynamics.

Medium-Term Outlook

In the medium term, gold is expected to remain in an uptrend as real yields are likely to continue falling. This could support new all-time highs for gold. However, in the short term, a hawkish shift in interest rate expectations may weigh on prices.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, clear range-bound price action can be seen between 4250 resistance and 4150 support. The strategy here relies on buying at support and selling at resistance until a breakout occurs. A move below support could lead to testing the 4025 zone, where dip-buying opportunities are likely.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today's US Jobless Claims data is also significant, but unless there are substantial deviations, it is not expected to disrupt market trends. Next week’s NFP and CPI will serve as the key catalysts.