Oil drops again but OPEC’s market share war could create a generational buying opportunity

In 2025, OPEC+ surprised the market by abandoning efforts to support oil prices. This strategic shift influenced the oil market, especially as resilient non-OPEC production emerged. The change began in spring 2025 when Saudi Arabia and its allies indicated they would no longer cut production to support prices. Such a strategy is reminiscent of the 2014 price war, highlighting internal tensions within OPEC as certain nations overproduced their quotas. Today, WTI crude fell by $1.61 to $56.74, remaining near five-year lows. The question now is how long OPEC can sustain fiscal pain under sub-$70 oil while aiming to reestablish market dominance. The cure for low prices typically is low prices. If oil prices dip below $40, strong buying opportunities may emerge, similar to late 2020, with expectations of seasonal improvements in April.