Canada GDP for October -0.3% vs -0.2% expected

Overview of Canada's October GDP

Canada's real GDP for October 2025 decreased by 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.2% drop, reversing September's growth. This contraction involved declines in 11 out of 20 industrial sectors, signaling broad economic weaknesses across both goods-producing and services-producing industries.

Key Sector Performances

The manufacturing sector experienced a significant drop of 1.5%, with durable goods declining by 2.3%. The wood production sector saw its largest decline since 2020 at 7.3% due to new US tariffs. Concurrently, mining and energy sectors contracted by 0.6%, largely attributed to lowered crude bitumen extraction.

Labor Market and Public Sector Disruptions

The education sector fell by 1.8% due to a province-wide teachers' strike in Alberta, while postal services plummeted by 32.1% amid nationwide strikes. Retail trade also saw a decline of 0.6% due to strikes affecting liquor stores in British Columbia.

Outlook Ahead

Early estimates for November indicate a slight recovery with a projected 0.1% increase in real GDP, thanks to anticipated growth in education, construction, and transportation, although manufacturing and mining sectors remain weak.