Who were the best 2025 forecasters? Here is who nailed (and who whiffed) the S&P 500 call

As the year ends, it's customary to review strategists' forecasts. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at 6831, reflecting a strong 16% increase for the year. Notably, firms like Goldman and JPMorgan had a consensus target of 6500, which was only about 4.8% off from reality. Almost all strategists predicted a positive trend, aiming for a steady rise to 6500, but the market surprised by climbing to 6831. SocGen stands out with a nearly perfect target of 6750, only 1.2% off. Their accuracy amidst the bull market is commendable. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo ventured bolder with targets over 7000, capturing market dynamics well. The evaluations clearly candidate SocGen as the most precise forecaster, succeeding over firms like BMO/HSBC. In contrast, Cantor's target of 6000 missed significantly. As we head into next year, strategists' predictions will be key to understanding market direction.