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What are the main events for today?
Key Takeaways (30s Read)
UK retail sales disappointed expectations, impacting the pound. Low-tier data expected ahead.
In the European session, the UK retail sales report was a major highlight, disappointing expectations and creating slight pressure on the pound. However, this does not significantly alter the BoE's focus on inflation. Upcoming low-tier releases like French PPI and Italian consumer confidence are not expected to impact the ECB or the market significantly.
In the American session, only the Canadian retail sales report will be of note, but this is unlikely to change anything for the BoC. The BoC has concluded its easing cycle and is observing the economy's evolution. The market, however, has started to price in rate hikes for 2026 after several strong employment reports.
ECB speakers are also scheduled throughout the day, with varying stances, adding a level of uncertainty for traders.
AI Analyst
AI Opinion
"Over the coming days, it will be crucial to observe how UK economic indicators will affect the market. The recent decline in UK retail sales impacted the pound, but it's anticipated that this won’t have a substantial effect on the BoE's monetary policy in the short term. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy's trajectory will also be of interest, particularly regarding the market's pricing for interest rate forecasts as far out as 2026. ECB speakers' comments will be critical as traders remain sensitive to shifts in market perceptions and central bank policy directions, necessitating careful analysis of incoming information."
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