Singapore MAS survey: 2026 GDP seen at 3.6%, April tightening odds rise

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.6%, up from 2.3%. This increase reflects resilience in Singapore's externally oriented sectors and expectations of continued support from technology and advanced manufacturing. The survey showed that 47.4% of economists now expect a tightening move at the MAS's April decision, up significantly from just 5.6% three months ago, while the remaining expect no change. Inflation forecasts also saw a slight uptick with core inflation projected at 1.5%, remaining within manageable bounds as per MAS’s official forecast. Geopolitical tensions and risks related to the AI investment bubble are key downside threats while a sustained technology upcycle presents upside risks to growth. Given these developments, the April MAS decision could be a close call.